FWF contests

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FWF contests are typically annual events that take place on the Financial Wisdom Forum (FWF) where members take educated guesses (or throw darts) to forecast how the current year will end. There are two longstanding contests, a predictions contest and a hedge fund contest.

This article serves to both capture the results but also draw some conclusions on the futility of predicting the future.

Predictions contest overview

Guesses or forecasts for the values at year end for the following items: DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ; TSX; GOLD; OIL (crude oil price); and CAD (Canadian / US Dollar exchange rate).

Hedge fund contest overview

Members are asked to pick up to three stocks to go long and up to three to short. Equal dollar amounts are placed on each position, long or short. No trades during the year, except that you can elect at any time during normal exchange business hours to "freeze" a price for any individual position at that day's closing price, i.e. liquidate any position.

Contest results

Year Predictions contest Hedge fund contest
2017 Announcement
Current 2017 standings
Announcement and current standings
2016 Announcement and final results
Final standings
Announcement and final results
2015 Announcement and final results
Final standings
Announcement and final results
2014 Announcement and final results
Final standings
Announcement and final results
2013 Announcement and final results
Final standings
Announcement and final results
2012 Announcement and final results
Final standings
Announcement and final results
2011 Announcement and final results
Final standings
Announcement and final results
2010 Announcement and final results
Final standings
Announcement and final results
2009 Announcement and final results
Final standings
Announcement and final results
2008 Announcement and final results
Final standings
2007 Announcement and final results
Final standings

Takeaways from the results

There has been no clear, repeat winner in either contest. The unpredictability demonstrates the variation of year-to-year investor returns and reinforces the advantages of holding a diversified portfolio, which contains several asset classes.

See also

External links